Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Global Warming Trade-offs

Public policy is all about trade-offs. Everything comes at a cost. Increased investment in one sector often means reduced investment somewhere else. Fore example increased spending on environment may come form decreasing defense or healthcare spending. Jonah Goldberg asks to be very careful when thinking about trade-offs involved in the policy to combat global warming:

In the history of trade-offs, never has there been a better one than trading a tiny amount of global warming for a massive amount of global prosperity. Earth got about 0.7 degrees Celsius warmer in the 20th century while it increased its GDP by 1,800 percent, by one estimate. How much of that 0.7 degrees can be laid at the feet of that 1,800 percent is unknowable, but let's stipulate that all of the warming was the result of our prosperity and that this warming is in fact indisputably bad (which is hardly obvious). That's still an amazing bargain. Life expectancies in the United States increased from about 47 years to about 77 years. Literacy, medicine, leisure and even, in many respects, the environment have improved mightily over the course of the 20th century, at least in the prosperous West.
....
Given the option of getting another 1,800 percent richer in exchange for another 0.7 degrees warmer, I'd take the heat in a heartbeat.


Would you?

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